The financial crisis in the dual pressures of oil price volatility

All sectors of society on the trend of international oil prices, the debate will never have any "end." As one industry expert as a sigh: oil price forecast it just like gambling.

Following the November 5 oil prices, "changing face" shock all the way up both broke 70 U.S. dollars a barrel mark after the financial crisis continued to spread, the global economic downturn led to a drop in demand, and other factors, international oil prices Continued downward and quickly fell below 60 U.S. dollars a barrel. Oil prices this high-density, a significant trend in the shocks, are among the growing Guojiyoushi "frequent".

At present, the increasing spread of the global financial crisis is a challenge to the oil industry. The world is going through since the Great Depression in 1929 has been the largest and deepest impact on the financial crisis, it was even known as the "financial tsunami." Due to the crisis from subprime mortgage loans and credit to the quality crisis extended from the banking sector to the insurance industry in areas such as proliferation, the crisis is far from calm. Affected by this, the European Commission a few days ago once again this year to reduce Europe's economic growth expected next year and is expected to be its economic growth rate close to zero. Landslide in the world economy seems to be inevitable, it is bound to lead to the total decline in oil demand, or at least reduced the rate of increase.

After this round of severe fluctuations in oil prices, the market parties to be more clearly aware of the importance of oil supply and demand balance and vulnerability. Overall, since the end of the Second World War, the global oil market in general has always maintained a balance between supply and demand and gradually tense state, which has become the market attention, concern and the focus of speculative funds to stir up trouble. Its direct or indirect result, the market is full of more variables, oil price volatility.

Financial crisis under the long-term sustainability of fluctuations in oil prices is bound to the oil industry's production and operation activities, such as investment growth will be under pressure. Data show that since 2000, the world's upstream exploration and development investment growth in a significant increase in return for oil and gas reserves but has only increased 2-3 percent. This investment return of the "lack of coordination" will have an impact on the enthusiasm of the capital and suppress the increase in the rate of investment in the future.

Decline in the growth rate of investment in the oil industry have far-reaching effects. As the world's current reserves of the advanced stage of exploration, and access to new reserves, the possibility of fewer and fewer, is facing the oil industry to increase oil and gas production and reserves to replace the two major challenges, the most in need of the continued substantial increase in investment. However, the global oil industry, the growth rate of investment has the opposite direction, which is bound to result in a short period of less growth in oil and gas production, consumption and the gap between supply and gradually widened, the stability of world oil supply will be greater threat.

A study showed that even though the world has been funding the implementation of the oil and gas projects since the economic downturn is unlikely to be affected, but those in the original plan in 2012 after the implementation of the project will be a more obvious impact. In the near future on a global scale have been a number of oil and gas companies announced their investment projects in the medium-term adjustment, which would affect the originally scheduled from 2012 to 2015 for completion of oil and gas projects as well as on the negative effects of oil supply.

Moreover, the world's oil and gas production growth has been confirmed. Data show that in 2006 the world's oil and gas production growth rate to 2% growth in the region, mainly in Canada, Africa and the Middle East, Russia and the Caspian Sea and the Asia-Pacific region. Of these, 8% growth in the Asia-Pacific region, is mainly supported by increased natural gas production; Europe 5% of the total output decline, the pace of decline in oil production and natural gas production is twice the rate of increase.

Financial crisis in oil prices and sharp fluctuations in the dual role of the global oil industry will inevitably experience a new integration. Those more serious debt, to engage in a number of lower-quality oil and gas companies such as a small refinery may face funding problems in the chain, which was to "M & A" market. From this perspective, the sharp oil price fluctuations on the world's major oil companies through mergers and acquisitions is also an opportunity for increasing strength.

The world oil market as an important component of China's oil industry will inevitably be intense international oil price fluctuations and the impact of such wide-ranging, far-reaching.

Sharp fluctuations in international oil prices high, domestic oil company profits will be because of increased costs and continued shrinking. Data show that only oil field services, in the past three or four wells in each of the world's average cost increase of 50%. This trend is also China's oil companies have faced serious challenges.

By the international financial market instability, such as a sharp impact, especially in the third quarter of this year, China's petroleum and chemical industry has slowed down the market demand, product inventories and rising prices, and so on the situation. China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association recently published analysis shows that the first three quarters of the industry output value 50,000,000,000,000 yuan, an increase of 32%. However, since the beginning of August, output growth slowed significantly, even in September from the previous 9.8 percent on the significant downturn.

To better withstand fluctuations in international oil prices brought about by the impact of a number of experts recommended that China should speed up the oil price adjustment frequency, such as half or even two days a week, one day a price adjustment, power companies should be Great - the development of the country in a quasi-price business in the scope of the quasi-price fluctuations. States retain the temporary price intervention, but under certain conditions to implement interim measures and not immobilized. The oil industry should be more in the long considered themselves to invest our money in the investment focus, focus on return on investment.

At the same time, high-energy should be dedicated to research in the field of energy-saving technology, energy and a strong increase the end-use energy technologies, including solar energy, such as promoting renewable energy, the key to technological innovation, and strive to achieve energy instead of The balance between allowing people to enjoy more green mountains and blue waters, blue sky and white clouds. (Source: China reported that oil Chen Yuqiang)